As a heat wave has engulfed Europe, there is a new sexy word in the European energy world: Hitzeflaute, which is an updated version of the Dunkelflaute, but for a hot summer day.
Great breakdown! The core friction is clear: scarcity here isn't really about total capacity, but the mismatch between when we need energy & when renewables deliver. These temporal gaps turn flexibility from a nice-to-have into a structural necessity. In my opinion, the real design test is: does our flexibility layer truly match the stress shape, or do we just push the mismatch downstream? A timely reminder that in energy (and beyond), trust & shape must align.
As usual, a fine post. Addressing the "more a/c but no PV after sunset" this is a trivial problem to solve. Indeed it was solved by a US company with a system they called “Ice-Bear”. In summary – use PV to power both the A/c and cold storage. Sun goes down, cold store takes over. Works well. Problem is, elec markets can’t/won’t drive the uptake of this tech. As for this comment:
“Europe’s power system is now shaped as much by climate as by technology. Heatwaves are no longer rare disruptions but regular, systemic stress tests..” The problem is that marginal markets were an answer to a fossil past, we now face a weather define future & marginal markets – as the price oscillations show deliver signals that are useless for investment purposes.
Indeed, what passes for thinking in EU institutions is that massive price oscillations are not a system malfunction they are a feature – which, marginal market believers thinks, will deliver system responses/change. This childish thinking is disproved by empirical reality – show me all the storage, the a/c cold stores, the medium/long term storage. None. A solution demands two actions: price energy at cost not “at the margin” which in any case is a category error/circular thinking, two engineer storage of various sorts & then use markets to cost optimise operation. This would be the sensible way, but it won’t happen because – from an EU institutional PoV “markets rule Ok & have all the answers” – meanwhile, increasingly, the TSOs pick up the pieces. Clever.
Very good post as always ! Do you know who made balancing.services ? (very nice too 😄)
Very good insights.
Great breakdown! The core friction is clear: scarcity here isn't really about total capacity, but the mismatch between when we need energy & when renewables deliver. These temporal gaps turn flexibility from a nice-to-have into a structural necessity. In my opinion, the real design test is: does our flexibility layer truly match the stress shape, or do we just push the mismatch downstream? A timely reminder that in energy (and beyond), trust & shape must align.
As usual, a fine post. Addressing the "more a/c but no PV after sunset" this is a trivial problem to solve. Indeed it was solved by a US company with a system they called “Ice-Bear”. In summary – use PV to power both the A/c and cold storage. Sun goes down, cold store takes over. Works well. Problem is, elec markets can’t/won’t drive the uptake of this tech. As for this comment:
“Europe’s power system is now shaped as much by climate as by technology. Heatwaves are no longer rare disruptions but regular, systemic stress tests..” The problem is that marginal markets were an answer to a fossil past, we now face a weather define future & marginal markets – as the price oscillations show deliver signals that are useless for investment purposes.
Indeed, what passes for thinking in EU institutions is that massive price oscillations are not a system malfunction they are a feature – which, marginal market believers thinks, will deliver system responses/change. This childish thinking is disproved by empirical reality – show me all the storage, the a/c cold stores, the medium/long term storage. None. A solution demands two actions: price energy at cost not “at the margin” which in any case is a category error/circular thinking, two engineer storage of various sorts & then use markets to cost optimise operation. This would be the sensible way, but it won’t happen because – from an EU institutional PoV “markets rule Ok & have all the answers” – meanwhile, increasingly, the TSOs pick up the pieces. Clever.
Magnificent post.