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Sep 13, 2023Liked by Julien Jomaux

About the rebound effect.

I wonder if we can have a linear analysis of it.

I mean today, renewables are cheaper but still represent few % of our load. Meaning that it is still at the marging of our consuption.

But what about a world in which renewable increaded until representing the majority of our load?

It would probably be mandatory to deal with abundance having in mind scarcity moments as well.

So in a 100% renewable world, to be at a maximal rate, we would have a physical limit on our consumption, whatever it is cheap or not.

Maybe on that time the questions would be the access for all to enough energy (production, storage capacity, efficient devices).

Questions that already exist today, in a fossil world.

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author

Thanks for the comment.

The rebound effect is certainly not linear and it is very difficult to assess. I believe that this rebound effect is an important part of our "energy history", as we have been increasingly more efficient and using even more energy. It is actually one driver of human development in a way.

Going to a 100% renewable world, I do not have much to say, as this world is still to be created. But I am convinced that, if it is our common objective, then we will need some societal/structural changes in our consumption behavior, maybe, as you say, with some limits.

The risk that I am describing is that, in our current societal framework, increasing renewables might not be enough to decarbonize as we might "just consumption". So, most probably, some more fundamental changes should happen as well.

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Can you elaborate on this last paragraph? What does that mean? Does it mean running factories on schedules when the electricity prices are predictably low?

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