Could be very interesting to have your updated analysis of Germany at the 1 year anniversary of their "Atomausstieg"?
German government take is that it's all good:
"We see today that the electricity supply remains secure, electricity prices have fallen even after the nuclear phase-out and CO₂ emissions are also falling."
Thank you for sharing your analysis! In the day-ahead market, what happens when a generator’s bid is accepted, but then they can’t deliver? E.g. thermal generators have mechanical issues or the wind doesn’t blow as much as expected.
Any difference between what was foreseen and the reality is taken over by the balancing market. Let's say that a company with a specific portfolio (generation + load) is 100 MWh short, it has to pay to the transmission system operator 100 MWh * balancing price.
Very interesting and useful, thanks. It will be interesting to see what happened during a colder winter. The difficulty is that it is hard to take any long term lessons as (i) penetration of renewables is moving each year, and (ii) weather a season is unusually hot/cold has a strong influence on imports and exports, and (iii) we're still in the post-Ukraine war disruptions to the system. Do keep on doing this analysis, it is important information.
Thanks for an really interesting analysis.
Could be very interesting to have your updated analysis of Germany at the 1 year anniversary of their "Atomausstieg"?
German government take is that it's all good:
"We see today that the electricity supply remains secure, electricity prices have fallen even after the nuclear phase-out and CO₂ emissions are also falling."
https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2024-04/strompreise-robert-habeck-atomausstieg
Factors such as decreasing NG prices, deindustrialization etc are of course not mentioned as contributers to their apparent "success story".
Thank you for sharing your analysis! In the day-ahead market, what happens when a generator’s bid is accepted, but then they can’t deliver? E.g. thermal generators have mechanical issues or the wind doesn’t blow as much as expected.
Any difference between what was foreseen and the reality is taken over by the balancing market. Let's say that a company with a specific portfolio (generation + load) is 100 MWh short, it has to pay to the transmission system operator 100 MWh * balancing price.
Balancing price for Germany: https://www.netztransparenz.de/de-de/Regelenergie/Ausgleichsenergiepreis/AEP-Sch%C3%A4tzer
Balancing price for Belgium: https://www.elia.be/en/grid-data/balancing/imbalance-prices-15-min
Somewhat related -- a wind farm in Sweden is facing bankruptcy because it had to buy electricity on the market to fulfill a PPA: https://twitter.com/simonwakter/status/1723629529833378128
Thank you! I was wondering if there were financial incentives for generators to over promise but under deliver. Clearly that’s not the case. Great!
Very interesting and useful, thanks. It will be interesting to see what happened during a colder winter. The difficulty is that it is hard to take any long term lessons as (i) penetration of renewables is moving each year, and (ii) weather a season is unusually hot/cold has a strong influence on imports and exports, and (iii) we're still in the post-Ukraine war disruptions to the system. Do keep on doing this analysis, it is important information.
Thanks. Indeed, it is hard to do long-term conclusions, even short-term to be honest.
Let's see this winter already how it goes.
Thank you, I will read it and re-read it. There is a lot of useful information here. Everyone is going to have to get smarter about energy.