What's your opinion on thermal batteries? There have been quite interesting announcements recently (eg. Rondo partnering with EDP, ...). Could they stabilize reasonable capture prices and promote further capacity expansion in southern Europe (esp. Spain)?
Thanks for this informative write-up. Do you happen to know how big the contribution of more aggressive curtailment is to Spain having a less pronounced duck curve? If I understand correctly, it could be beneficial for Germany to adopt more concentrated solar / oversize their fleets / do more utility scale, etc. But if the statistics for Spain just look better on paper due to curtailment without system efficiency actually being higher there isn't much gained.
Probably another reason for the relative flatness of Spanish generation curves is the high penetration of trackers compared to Germany, where >95% of the utilty-scale is fixed mounting. Compared to fixed mounting systems, trackers see more generation, relatively speaking, around the peak hours compared to the peak.
The extent of oversizing is a very economical problem and depends on various factors such as insolation patterns, price /remuneration when it is shining a lot, cost of each components, limitations on the grid, etc.
I do not have precise numbers but I would say that I would not be surprised if it goes to 15/20% (and maybe even 30% in some cases). It would more and more common as solar modules get cheaper but the "solar surplus" is less valuable.
What's your opinion on thermal batteries? There have been quite interesting announcements recently (eg. Rondo partnering with EDP, ...). Could they stabilize reasonable capture prices and promote further capacity expansion in southern Europe (esp. Spain)?
Thanks for this informative write-up. Do you happen to know how big the contribution of more aggressive curtailment is to Spain having a less pronounced duck curve? If I understand correctly, it could be beneficial for Germany to adopt more concentrated solar / oversize their fleets / do more utility scale, etc. But if the statistics for Spain just look better on paper due to curtailment without system efficiency actually being higher there isn't much gained.
@Julien Jomaux I used your article in a post I have coming this Friday… made sure to quote you, here is some early access to the article: https://thesimpleside.substack.com/p/4761bd2b-9862-438b-b52c-148a6565e542
Thanks for the link and thanks for quoting my work.
Probably another reason for the relative flatness of Spanish generation curves is the high penetration of trackers compared to Germany, where >95% of the utilty-scale is fixed mounting. Compared to fixed mounting systems, trackers see more generation, relatively speaking, around the peak hours compared to the peak.
Yes, indeed, very good point.
Thanks!!
Love the graphics. Very informative.
Would you mind explaining more about your “2” footnote?
“AC values (after the inverter) might well be lower due to oversizing, i.e. installing more solar capacity than the rating of the inverter.”
Any details on how common this is or how different capacity typically is than inverter rating?
Thanks for your comment. In this post, I explained a bit this concept: https://gemenergyanalytics.substack.com/p/how-cheap-will-solar-projects-get
The extent of oversizing is a very economical problem and depends on various factors such as insolation patterns, price /remuneration when it is shining a lot, cost of each components, limitations on the grid, etc.
I do not have precise numbers but I would say that I would not be surprised if it goes to 15/20% (and maybe even 30% in some cases). It would more and more common as solar modules get cheaper but the "solar surplus" is less valuable.
Here, you can find an illustration of that as well (check out the Bungala solar farm): https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2023/03/why-capacity-factor-is-an-increasingly-simplistic-way-to-compare-solar-farm-performance/
Besides, if I am not mistaken, the EU objective for 2030 is 600 GW AC / 750 GW DC, so 20% less AC than DC.
Great charts! Thank you Julien!