One other constraint to consider is that solar panels real world service life is 15 years before removal and a trip to the dump, notwithstanding that they are an intermittent and diffuse energy generator.
"In fact, as solar power becomes increasingly prevalent, market prices tend to decrease, thereby diminishing the additional value of solar."
Unless I'm missing something, isn't this argument kind of weak? It seems a bit like saying 'as water becomes more available, prices tend to decrease, thereby diminishing the value of additional water infrastructure'. The point isn't that it's valuable, but that citizens have their water and energy needs taken care of.
Practical arguments when it comes to the implementation of renewables, like the disconnect between peak production and peak consumption, the problem of storage and viability of hydrogen infrastructure I find much more convincing.
Value in this context means market value that can be turned into financial income. Speaking in terms of value to the society, if you cannot store or usefully spend all of that excess energy then it has no value to the society either.
Nice analysis. I am curious about what is happening in South Australia where solar is c. 25% of generated capacity?
How important is "behind the meter" solar in thinking about roll-outs? In addition, what is the impact of near the meter storage (for example, electric vehicles and v2g) in accommodating excess at peak times?
What of these issues are "law of physics" vs "human laws"? i.e. things which can't be fixed through the swipe of a legislators pen vs things that can be fixed by law.
Finally, I'm happy to take a bet with you on total global solar capacity for 2030 (seven years time). As you point out, today we are at 1 TW. I'm happy to bet that it'll be above 5TW by 31 December 2030 (5x where we are today). You'll note this would require c. 650GW per annum for each of the next 7 years. And so much good go wrong - economic war, a china choke, could totally seize the solar market, couldn't it?
One other constraint to consider is that solar panels real world service life is 15 years before removal and a trip to the dump, notwithstanding that they are an intermittent and diffuse energy generator.
"In fact, as solar power becomes increasingly prevalent, market prices tend to decrease, thereby diminishing the additional value of solar."
Unless I'm missing something, isn't this argument kind of weak? It seems a bit like saying 'as water becomes more available, prices tend to decrease, thereby diminishing the value of additional water infrastructure'. The point isn't that it's valuable, but that citizens have their water and energy needs taken care of.
Practical arguments when it comes to the implementation of renewables, like the disconnect between peak production and peak consumption, the problem of storage and viability of hydrogen infrastructure I find much more convincing.
Value in this context means market value that can be turned into financial income. Speaking in terms of value to the society, if you cannot store or usefully spend all of that excess energy then it has no value to the society either.
Julien
Nice analysis. I am curious about what is happening in South Australia where solar is c. 25% of generated capacity?
How important is "behind the meter" solar in thinking about roll-outs? In addition, what is the impact of near the meter storage (for example, electric vehicles and v2g) in accommodating excess at peak times?
What of these issues are "law of physics" vs "human laws"? i.e. things which can't be fixed through the swipe of a legislators pen vs things that can be fixed by law.
Finally, I'm happy to take a bet with you on total global solar capacity for 2030 (seven years time). As you point out, today we are at 1 TW. I'm happy to bet that it'll be above 5TW by 31 December 2030 (5x where we are today). You'll note this would require c. 650GW per annum for each of the next 7 years. And so much good go wrong - economic war, a china choke, could totally seize the solar market, couldn't it?
I'd suggest £500--in today's money, £100 for each tera-install--as a stake, adjust for inflation based on the inflation calculator at the equivalent value of the GBP on 31/12/30. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator).
Are you in? 😄